Now that 2024 is underway and the economy is healthy, we can also look forward to some good news for the markets. Top banks and economists are forecasting that interest rates will be cut starting in late Q1 into Q2.

Thanks to the new 1% tax now being levied on any publicly traded US companies that buy back their shares, these larger, cash-rich companies have been given a strong incentive to seek acquisition targets.

How do Economic Conditions affect the Lower Middle Market? 

The lower middle market is typically defined as companies with an enterprise value (EV) between $5 million and $100 million. A range of factors, including economic conditions, interest rates, and availability of financing, influences M&A activity in this market segment. In recent years, lower middle market M&A has been driven by several factors, including a strong economy, low-interest rates, and the availability of financing. Here are a few ways that current economic conditions can affect M&A activity in these key industries:

With discussions of a recession looming, business owners may display concerns about the timing of going to market to sell, asserting that the economic downturn will not be beneficial if they were to go to market. In fact, acquisition opportunities present a significant value creation prospect for private equity groups, which tend to increase mergers and acquisitions during a recession for various reasons.

The flagship of The Small Business Administration's programs to support small businesses is the SBA 7(a) loan guaranty program. The program was designed to encourage lenders to provide loans to borrowers that might not otherwise obtain financing on reasonable terms and conditions. Under this program, the SBA will guarantee 75% for loans greater than $150,000 with a maximum loan amount of $5 million with reasonable interest rates. This is a viable option for the average person looking to acquire their first business or an existing business looking to grow through acquisition. This loan is so popular that in 2021, the SBA approved 51,856 7(a) loans totaling $36.5 billion.

Dry powder, the amount of money private equity has at its disposal to make future investments, has gone up and up over the last ten years. The most obvious reason was the desire for institutions, which most famously include insurance companies, pension funds, and university endowments, to find yield on their troves of cash during a time when their traditional vehicle, bonds, were providing essentially zero yields.