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M&A Outlook Under Biden Election Win

Now that Biden was named the President-elect, what does this mean for mergers and acquisitions under a Biden administration? The good news is that mergers and acquisitions activity is expected to increase regardless of the election results. Many experts predict that M&A activity will return to pre-pandemic levels in the next year, and that the market will be favorable for the next few years.

Taxes
President Biden’s proposed tax plan raises the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which would likely make M&A deals more expensive. Biden has also voiced support for an increase in capital gains taxes, which could impact M&A activity. The proposed plan would tax long-term capital gains and qualified dividends at the ordinary income tax rate of 39.6% on income over $1 million, and eliminates step-up in basis for capital gains taxation. Sellers may be anxious to complete deals prior to 2021 to dodge higher taxes and potentially lower valuations, and to avoid having increased capital gains taxes cut into profits from a deal.

The Biden plan also restores the top individual federal income tax rate from 37% to the pre-Trump rate of 39.6%. It also promotes tax provisions to penalize the exporting of jobs overseas and to incentivize investments in new infrastructure and green energy, transportation and manufacturing, and establishes a minimum tax on corporations with book profits of $100 million or more, structured as a 15% alternative minimum tax, to prevent them from paying no taxes. The plan also offers tax credits to small businesses for adopting workplace retirement savings plans and creates a Manufacturing Communities Tax Credit to reduce the tax liability of businesses that face workforce layoffs or a major government institution closure.

It is important to note that getting tax code changes enacted into law requires congressional leadership and the White House to work together to reach consensus. This can be challenging, and can also take a considerable amount of time, meaning that there may not be immediate tax implications for M&A. But you still may not want to wait until 2021 to sell your company. Here’s why.  

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How Biden's Proposed Tax Plan Could Impact Your Company's Exit Strategy

Tax implications could be drastically different 18-24 months from now and M&A markets are preparing to react to increased liquidity events in 2021 and beyond. The implementation of the proposed Biden Plan would have negative tax consequences which would cause a significant impact on net proceeds from any potential M&A transaction. Taxes on capital gains could rise to 40 percent for proceeds of a business sale over $1M. Individuals can expect a reversal of at least half of Trump’s signature tax cuts to pay for the plan.

For business owners generating over $1M in the sale of the business, expect to have earnings (“capital gains”) taxed as ordinary income under the Biden plan. Today, capital gains are taxed as income. A capital gain is a profit from the sale of a capital asset, such as a stock or home, from the time that asset is acquired until the time it is sold. Taxpayers pay the difference on the purchase price of the asset (“basis”) less the sales price.

Three Major Components Of The Plan

The plan has three major components: raising the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent, revoking the TCJA’s income tax cuts for taxpayers with taxable income above $400,000, and imposing a “donut hole” payroll tax on earnings in excess of $400,000.

The Biden Plan has considerable impact to business owners; careful consideration to the timing of an exit and liquidity strategy needs to be at the mind’s forefront as the 2020 election quickly approaches. If endorsed, the plan impacts owners directly through the implementation of new tax obligations or the elimination of tax benefits. This includes a 19.6 percent increase on the tax rate of material long-term capital gains for those with adjusted gross income (AGI) exceeding $1M, and a 7 percent increase in the overall corporate income tax rate as noted in the table below.

Example: Assume a $2.0M EBITDA business receives a valuation multiple of 10x for a total transaction value (taxable gain) of $20.0M. Under the Biden Plan, the seller would lose $3.92M in the sale. To receive the same net proceeds, a multiple of 13.2x would need to be secured.

Independent of the 2020 election, taxes are being reevaluated at the state level. This includes increased tax burden on transaction proceeds. The adoption of the proposed graduated income tax rates proposed in states such as Colorado, Illinois, and Michigan would result in a higher state tax burden for high earners. California has already adopted this measure and has a 13.3 percent top marginal tax rate for individuals with income above $1.0M.

 

Ready to explore your exit and growth options?

 

What If I Want To Transfer My Wealth?

The step-up in basis for inherited capital assets may cease under the plan. This elimination translates to more taxes on wealth passed to heirs and ending favorable tax rates on capital gains for anyone making over $1M.

How Are My Stocks Affected?

The 2017 tax reform law dropped the corporate income rate to current 21 percent level. The proposed plan increases the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28 percent.

For people that earn $300,000 a year, you more than likely own shares in publicly traded companies. Under the plan publicly traded companies will be paying higher taxes which means less cash available for dividends to stockholders. Biden is suggesting a 15 percent minimum tax on large corporations. Goldman Sachs has projected that Biden’s tax plan would lead it to reduce its 2021 earnings estimate by 12 percent.

The tax rate on Global Intangible Low Tax Income (GILTI) earned by foreign subsidiaries of US firms will double from 10.5 percent to 21 percent.

How Is The Overall Economy Affected?

Experts suggest this plan would shrink the size of the economy by 1.51 percent due to higher marginal tax rates on capital and labor. A decrease of 3.23 percent in capital stock and reduction of 0.98 percent to the overall wage rate would lead to 585,000 fewer full-time equivalent jobs according to the Tax Foundation’s General Equilibrium Model.

Over the course of the next 12 to 24 months sellers and buyers alike will be keeping a pulse on the results of the 2020 presidential election and the possibility of a significant tax overhaul. It is important to note the reality of the Biden Plan coming to fruition can be driven by not just a Biden election; other drivers can include Democrat control over the U.S. House of Representatives or a change in control in the U.S. Senate from Republican to Democrat.

With the 2020 election on the horizon, it is crucial that business owners contemplate the potential tax consequences and consider crafting an exit strategy now to be ahead of the tax changes.

The recipient should consult their own tax, legal, and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. This document has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on, for tax, legal, or accounting advice.

Sources: Tax Foundation, Kipingler, Houlihan Lokey and Yahoo Finance

 

Author
Emily Cogley
Director
Benchmark International

T: +1 813 898 2350
E: Cogley@BenchmarkIntl.com

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Why 2020 Is The Right Time To Transition A Business

When determining the best time to sell or exit a company, unfortunately nobody has a crystal ball. However, there are several circumstances that should be considered, from fundamental business positions to external influential factors.

The state of the M&A market is among the most significant factors in a decision to sell a business. The market held steady from 2015 to 2017, and optimism skyrocketed in 2018. In 2019, the market dipped slightly but remained strong in deal volume and value, with a wave of multi-billion-dollar megadeals being completed.

While some expect a modest drop in global M&A value in 2020 due to what is perceived as inevitable economic correction after a lengthy, seemingly unstoppable up-cycle, many experts predict that little change is expected due to sustained economic growth, low unemployment, low inflation, high consumer confidence, and strong corporate earnings. Companies still have a need to diversify their portfolios, acquire talent, and innovate technologies in order to stay competitive—all needs that are best addressed through M&A. Also, plenty of capital is available and private equity has amassed the dry powder that can drive larger deals, even in the event of an economic downturn.

Additionally, there is potential for more aggressive M&A strategies earlier in the year to get ahead of a potential downturn and downgrade in valuations. Companies that have proven to perform well during times of recession may be especially appealing targets.

The 2020 U.S. Election

Regarding a potential downturn, one of the major factors that play into the state of this year’s M&A market is the upcoming November 2020 presidential election in the United States and the issue of impeachment of the current president. History indicates that economies typically perform well in election years. However, as uncertainty looms contingent upon the results of the election when it comes to topics such as trade and regulation, acquirers may become hesitant and the M&A market could lose momentum leading up to November, with the market remaining slow in the months following, depending on the election results.

Another matter affected by the election results is capital gains taxes, which is a matter of concern if you are selling a company because how much profit you yield from the sale will be taxable. Some presidential candidates are proposing higher taxation of the highest-income taxpayers’ accrued wealth and income, and this includes capital gains. Most candidates’ plans would tax capital gains at ordinary income rates, with just the very top marginal tax rates varying at incomes of more than $488,850.

The closer the election nears, the more every single day counts. If you hope to sell, the sooner you initiate the process, the better, as most M&A deals take several months.

Ready to explore your exit and growth options?

Brexit

As of January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom is officially no longer part of the European Union, but a second round of negotiations will continue with the goal of reaching a deal by the end of 2020. With lessened political uncertainty now that an initial Brexit deal has been made, there is heightened confidence in deal-making activity. The inability to make a second deal by the end of the year will mean higher costs and barriers to trade.

The Brexit situation is affecting changes to M&A strategies. M&A could be used to secure an operational presence in the EU to maintain access to European markets. M&A could also facilitate access to markets outside the EU. Additionally, some companies could be facing new pressures that can directly impact share prices.  

The Boomer Retirement Wave

While it seems as though we have been talking about it for years, the Baby Boomer generation remains a factor in 2020.

According To Pew Research Center population data, 10,000 Baby Boomers will turn 65 on each day of this year.

In the U.S. alone, Baby Boomers own 2.34 million small businesses, and employ more than 25 million people. This aging ownership pool points to a flood of M&A activity in the lower and middle markets this year, especially in certain sectors such as those that offer professional services.

As this population retires, there will be an increased need for consolidation, succession planning, and exit planning. If Boomers do not properly plan for these scenarios, it could result in an economic crisis that in turn affects millions of jobs. Also, most of these business owners have the majority of their net worth tied up in their company. This means that if the company should lose value, so does the owner’s ability to retire.

The unfortunate reality is that the majority (75%) of owners of small to mid-sized businesses choose to procrastinate and do not have a plan in place. If you are a part of this generation, you should most certainly already have your plans for the future underway. Even if you are not a Boomer and are considering selling, this is the time to get ahead of the massive wave of businesses that are expected to hit the market this year.    

Are You Ready to Sell?

If you are considering selling your business, we encourage you to enlist the expert M&A guidance of Benchmark International’s team to create your growth strategy, exit strategy, or company sale for maximum value. The time to start planning is now.

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Post-Holiday Boost Predicted For M&A

Following a summer of uncertainty post Brexit, investors all over the world are returning from summers spent on the beach, ready to do some serious M&A business to close out the year.

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M&A and the Presidential Election

There are few things the M&A market likes less than political uncertainty and, following the results of the EU referendum and Brexit shaking up global markets, there is more to come in the form of the upcoming presidential elections in the US.

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