M&A Activity has remained steady over the last year, but can the same be expected of the years to come? A closer review of the annual activity for 2018 indicates that the peak of the M&A cycle is slowly coming to a plateau. It’s time for business owners to reflect and decide whether riding out the next few years is truly worth it.
Here’s what we know about M&A activity and what we can predict based on current trends. Year over year, the total number of completed deals has been on a slow and steady decline from 2015 to 2018. In 2015, there was a total of 16,566 deals completed. Whereas, in 2018, there have been 10,734 deals completed so far. Although there has been an impressive total deal value of more than $800 billion completed in deals so far in the US for the 2018 cycle, that value is a decrease from previous years.
What business owners have to look forward to in the coming years is a bit of uncertainty, especially following the anticipated 2020 presidential elections. 2019 is expected to be another great year for M&A transactions, but it may very well be one of the last for this incredibly hot activity we have experienced recently.
Following the 2016 elections, there was a short pause in activity followed by a quick uptick and a wave of transactions. The 2018 midterm elections were an indication of the coming “blue tsunami” predicted in 2020, with the Democratic Party taking hold of the House of Representatives. A change in political leadership can unsettle the ship that so many have been sailing upon for the last four years. President Trump’s 2016 campaign was centered on economic surety, and that surety brought a wealth of support for M&A transactions to follow. Should a new leader be at the helm of the nation following elections, volatility in the market is certain.
In addition to an anticipated election, there is no denying that the successful economic swing that has taken place thus far has also had an effect on the current market standing. A fourth interest rate increase is anticipated before the end of 2018, and three additional hikes are estimated to take place in 2019. Buyers will be wearier of transaction decisions as interest rates increase. They will not want to pay high valuations as those seen in previous years because the purchase risk will increase as a result.
Now is the time for business owners to act before the market shifts from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market. Steadily increasing interest rates will give more power to buyers in transaction negotiations. Business owners should keep this in mind before they decide to wait a few more years to put their exit plans in place.
Moreover, the market is predicted to become somewhat saturated over the next decade as more adults are coming to retirement age. Baby Boomers make up approximately 60% of privately-held businesses in the in the US, and this means the number of businesses on the market are going to increase a great deal.
As a result, valuations for businesses will likely decrease. Buyers will have many options at their disposal for their ventures, so they will have a higher competitive advantage against sellers. Sellers can take advantage of the current market and get ahead of the game now.
A transaction can take anywhere from one year to eighteen months to complete on average. Getting a business on the market sooner rather than later will give sellers the power to take advantage of lower interest rates and getting a deal locked in before the market is filled with a myriad of new businesses.
A sell-side mergers and acquisitions firm helps business owners derive the most value for their businesses in a sale. Benchmark International is a firm with decades of experience and a wealth of dedicated professionals who are looking out for our clients’ best interests in a transaction from start to finish. If you want to learn more about where the market is headed and what your options are, we can help you formulate an effective exit strategy now.
WE ARE READY WHEN YOU ARE.
Call Benchmark International today if you are interested in an exit or growth strategy or if you are interested in acquiring.
Americas: Sam Smoot at +1 (813) 898 2350 / Smoot@BenchmarkCorporate.com
Europe: Carl Settle at +44 (0)161 359 4400 / Settle@BenchmarkCorporate.com
Africa: Anthony McCardle at +2721 300 2055 / McCardle@BenchmarkCorporate.com
ABOUT BENCHMARK INTERNATIONAL
Benchmark International’s global offices provide business owners in the middle market and lower middle market with creative, value-maximizing solutions for growing and exiting their businesses. To date, Benchmark International has handled engagements in excess of $5B across 30 industries worldwide. With decades of global M&A experience, Benchmark International’s deal teams, working from 13 offices across the world, have assisted hundreds of owners with achieving their personal objectives and ensuring the continued growth of their businesses.